Success criteria definition
Define what "good enough to proceed" means for each phase in quantifiable terms: precision, recall, F1, BLEU score, hallucination rate, human preference rating, or business-metric proxy.
Managing Probabilistic Roadmaps
AI phases should not advance on calendar dates. They should advance when model behavior meets defined quality standards. This process builds evaluation frameworks that make milestone criteria objective, measurable, and defensible.
Method
Evaluation-first milestones shift the conversation from "are we on schedule?" to "does the model meet the bar required to proceed?" This requires defining that bar before development starts — not after the first demo.
Define what "good enough to proceed" means for each phase in quantifiable terms: precision, recall, F1, BLEU score, hallucination rate, human preference rating, or business-metric proxy.
Create a representative evaluation set drawn from real production inputs. Tasks must reflect the actual distribution of the use case — not cherry-picked examples that flatter early results.
Define who evaluates, how evaluation is conducted, and how disagreements are resolved. Establish whether evaluation is automated, human-reviewed, or a hybrid — with documented rubrics for each.
Document the specific evaluation scores required to pass each milestone gate. Include minimum thresholds, acceptable variance, and conditions under which a phase may be extended rather than failed.
Obtain documented agreement on evaluation criteria from all stakeholders before development begins. This eliminates post-hoc goalposts and scope creep driven by subjective expectations.
Outputs
Formal specification of success criteria for each phase, agreed before development begins.
Representative evaluation dataset drawn from production inputs with documented sampling methodology.
Structured template for recording evaluation results at each milestone gate.
Audit trail of all evaluation runs with scores, configurations, and decisions recorded.
Engagement Cadence
Output: an evaluation framework that governs phase advancement objectively, eliminating calendar-driven decisions and protecting against premature production deployment.